The African continent will be hardest hit by climate change.
There are four key reasons for this:
First, African society is very closely coupled with the climate system; hundreds of millions of people depend on rainfall to grow their food
Second, the African climate system is controlled by an extremely complex mix of large-scale weather systems, many from distant parts of the planet and, in comparison with almost all other inhabited regions, is vastly understudied. It is therefore capable of all sorts of surprises
Third, the degree of expected climate change is large. The two most extensive land-based end-of-century projected decreases in rainfall anywhere on the planet occur over Africa; one over North Africa and the other over southern Africa
Finally, the capacity for adaptation to climate change is low; poverty equates to reduced choice at the individual level while governance generally fails to prioritise and act on climate change
Is Africa sleepwalking into a potential catastrophe?
African climate is replete with complexity and marvels. The Sahara is the world’s largest desert with the deepest layer of intense heating anywhere on Earth.
In June and July the most extensive and most intense dust storms found anywhere on the planet fill the air with fine particles that interfere with climate in ways we don’t quite understand.
The region is almost completely devoid of weather measurements yet it is a key driver of the West African monsoon system, which brings three months of rain that interrupts the nine-month long dry season across the Sahel region, south of the desert.
For the decades following the 1960s and peaking in 1984, there was a downturn of rainfall of some 30% across the Sahel, which led to famine and the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people and the displacement of many millions.
No other region has documented such a long and spatially extensive drought.
Evidence points to Western industrial aerosol pollution, which cooled parts of the global ocean, thereby altering the monsoon system, as a cause.
The currently observed recovery of the rains is projected to continue through the 21st Century, particularly over the central and eastern Sahel.
But that change seems to depend on exactly where future heating in the central Sahara peaks, emphasising cruelly the region we least understand.
In southern Africa we are seeing a delay in the onset and a drying of early summer rains, which is predicted to worsen in forthcoming decades.
Temperatures there are predicted to rise by five degrees or more, particularly in the parts of Namibia, Botswana and Zambia that are already intolerably hot.
The East African paradox
Meanwhile over Kenya and Tanzania, the long rains from March to May start later and end sooner – leading to an overall decrease in rainfall.
This observed change sits uncomfortably next to predictions of a wetter future in the same season – a problem scientists have termed the East African Climate Paradox.
Central Africa, one of three regions on the planet where thunderstorms drive the rest of the planet’s tropical and sub-tropical weather systems, lives perilously close to the rainfall minimum needed to support the world’s second largest rainforest system.
Even a little less rainfall in the future could endanger the forest and its massive carbon store.
We know remarkably little about that climate system – it is scarcely even monitored – there are more reporting rain gauges in the UK county of Oxfordshire than the entire Congo Basin.